Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Boomtime in the Oil Shale.

You know when you hear a couple of things from disparate sources that suddenly gel in your mind in a certain way?  Had one of those experiences this morning.  It came while listening to a recap of last night's NBA Finals game.

We'll start before that.  A few weeks ago, I got to sit in a meeting with a developer for some property in the DC area.  They come from Canada, Edmonton and Calgary to be precise.  Having some experience with the good people of Canada in that area, and noticing the very deep pockets and real estate interests of these folks, I said one thing immediately: Oil Money.

Yesterday, driving into the office, a report came on NPR about the up-and-coming city of Cleveland.  A lot of Northeast Ohio is seeing a boom in incomes and business.  But hearing this, I said it again: Oil Money.

Then, this morning, I listened to the breathless recap of the Oklahoma City Thunder's victory over the Miami heat.  It's hard to remember, but that OKC team once belonged in the Pacific Northwest.    Once more: Oil Money.

That kind of click was an interesting one.  We think a lot about the winners and losers in the battle to be, become, or remain successful global cities.  There are plenty of measures of up and coming or boomtowns.  Oklahoma City and Cleveland are well down the list.  

Let's think for a minute about what fracking and the oil shale boom are going to do to cities.  Here is a map of the big locations for oil shale across the United States.


Shale "Plays" - locations for exploration.  (GAWDA)

Most notable is the big red blob in the north east.  It obscures many of the old Rust Belt cities, who are desperately looking for employers and income.  Industry left these areas and they have been struggling to reposition themselves in a new economy.

Well, what if they didn't have to reposition that far.  What if a lot of that industrial infrastructure that is sitting dormant can be re-fired to start new life in oil, rather than coal or steel.  These original boom towns may once again find themselves, well, booming.  

One last point.  Three of the four states mostly covered by the Marcellus shale deposit (Pennsylvania, New York, and Ohio) voted for Obama in the 2008 election.  Make no mistake he remembers that, or their 73 electoral votes.

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